DWCS 2023: Episode 1 Breakdown and Predictions

Caio Machado
Caio Machado Credit: Facebook

Heavyweight: Caio Machado vs. Kevin Szaflarski

Tale of the Tape

Caio Machado
29-years-old
6’4″
Brazil/Canada
Franco Kickboxing Pankration
7-1-1
4 KO/TKO’s, 2 Submissions
Combined opponent’s record: 41-38-1
Kevin Szaflarski
28-years-old
6’6″
Nowy Targ, Poland
Akademia Sportów Walki Wilanów
11-1
4 KO/TKO’s, 5 Submissions
Combined opponent’s record: 54-46-1

Pros and Cons

Caio Machado

Pros

  • Excellent knees
  • Heavy hands
  • Starts fast
  • Heavy kicks
  • Submission threat
  • Good clinch work

Cons

  • Sits in the pocket too long
  • Hands low/Easily hit
  • Questionable cardio

Kevin Szaflarski

Pros

  • Solid jab
  • Good TDD
  • Submission threat
  • Good cardio
  • Good ground and pound
  • Strong against the cage

Cons

  • Low output at times

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Machado
Speed: Machado
Output/Volume: Machado
Kickboxing: Even
Striking defense: Szaflarski
Footwork/movement: Machado
Wrestling: Even
Grappling: Szaflarski
Gas tank: Szaflarski

Prediction: Both these guys are mid-tier heavyweights which could make for a good fight or a sloppy one. Szaflarski was supposed to fight last season and I was picking him to beat Jimmy Lawson. Machado is a much tougher test compared to Lawson. Machado was supposed to fight last season as well and against Paulo Renato Jr. Szaflarski is a better prospect than Renato.

Szaflarski is a better fighter than he gets credit for especially for a heavyweight. He’s got a lot of the fundamentals needed but that doesn’t matter as much at heavyweight. Although he has more finishes than decisions he’s not known for his power. He wears on guys breaking them down. Nothing flashy but he’s been getting the job done

Machado is the better known fighter as he was the BFL champion as viewed on UFC Fight Pass. He had multiple title defenses for the promotion. He’s been a part of some wild fights with emphatic finishes across his career.

Tough fight to call as both are completely different fighters. Szaflarski is probably the favorite as the fight goes on. I see it going differently expecting Machado to bring the fight to Szaflarski fast and hard. He will make Szaflarski get into a dog fight and a fight I see Machado winning. If somehow Machado doesn’t finish early he could be in trouble. With that said I think Machado starts fast and ends it fast.