DWCS 2023: Episode 4 Breakdown and Predictions

Mateo Vogel Credit: BFL

Featherweight: Timothy Cuamba Vs. Mateo Vogel

Tale of the Tape

Timothy Cuamba
24-years-old
5’8″
Las Vegas, Nevada, US
???
6-1
3 KO/TKOs
Combined opponents’ record: 12-7
Mateo Vogel
27-years-old
5’8″
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
New Era Combat Sports
8-2
1 KO/TKO, 5 Submissions
Combined opponents’ record: 35-14

Pros and Cons

Timothy Cuamba

Pros

  • Hand speed
  • Credible wrestling
  • Nice straight punches
  • Good kicks
  • Throws in combinations

Cons

  • Lacks top position
  • Lacks setups

Mateo Vogel

Pros

  • Submission threat
  • Dangerous off his back
  • Scrambles really well
  • Excellent guard
  • Slick grappling
  • High work rate
  • Smooth quick transitions
  • Fast starter
  • Relentless
  • Tough/Durable

Cons

  • Wild striking
  • Takes a lot of damage
  • No head movement

Who has the advantage?

Striking: Cuamba
Speed: Cuamba
Output/Volume: Cuamba
Kickboxing: Cuamba
Striking defense: Cuamba
Footwork/movement: Cuamba
Wrestling: Vogel
Grappling: Vogel
Gas tank: Even

Prediction: This low-key could be one of the best fights of the entire season. Vogel has been in a couple of very entertaining fights and Cuamba is capable of those as well. Both these guys can do a lot of things but this is basically a striker vs grappler.

Cuamba uses his wrestling from time to time but he’s going to have to bail from that for this one. Cuamba was easily submitted before so Vogel is someone you don’t wanna play around with on the mat at all. I can definitely see Cuamba being able to light Vogel up on the feet. Vogel has bad striking defense but at the same time his durability and pressure break guys. Cuamba is a solid striker but he could be much better. If he used a lot more feints and went to the body more often he’d be deadly. If he can use lateral footwork and throw those straight punches he can dominate this fight.

I see this fight going for the Canadian. I expect Vogel to press a hard pace and bring a heavy wrestling attack. Cuamba has a nice advantage on the feet but Vogel has the biggest advantage on the mat. The level of jiu-jitsu between the two is a massive gap where Vogel is lightyears better. Yeah, Cuamba could stop Vogel but nobody has been able to finish Vogel. Vogel has the clearer path to victory, is more battle-tested, and has fought the way better competition.