Road to UFC Season 4: Episode 1 Breakdown and Predictions

Baergeng Jieleyisi, Road to UFC
Baergeng Jieleyisi Credit: Tapology

With no Fight Night or Pay-Per-View event scheduled for the UFC this week, the focus turns to Asia, with Road to UFC Season 4 set to get underway on May 22. The first episode of the tournament-based series will feature flyweight and featherweights in action, plus a featured one-off women’s strawweight fight.

As always, Road to UFC winners will win themselves a spot in the UFC. Hyun Sung Park, one of last season’s big winners, was in action this past weekend, and along with other RTU grads has been making a pretty big splash in the company.

Featherweight, Seb Szalay (8-1) Vs. Baergeng Jieleyisi (15-3)

Seb Szalay

Pros:
-Excellent movement
-High work rate
-Quick
-Diverse kickboxing
-Attacks from different angles
-Good clinchwork
-High output
-Excels in short bursts
-Good bodywork
-Credible counter striker
-Slips punches well
-Solid TDD
-Solid gas tank
-Snapping jab

Cons:
-Hand positioning is lacking at times
-Will sit in the pocket too long

Szalay is one of the top prospects to come out of Australia in recent years, and getting him on Road to UFC is a strong move by the matchmakers. He’s riding a seven-fight win streak and currently holds — and is defending — the Eternal MMA featherweight title.

Szalay fights out of an unorthodox karate stance, switching between stances fluidly and showcasing impressive lateral movement. While he’s been taken down at times, he generally does a solid job staying upright and getting back to his feet. On the feet, Szalay is a tough puzzle to solve. He’s constantly moving, mixing up his rhythm with a high volume of kicks and unpredictable striking patterns.

He excels at creating angles, slipping punches, and managing distance. Whether he’s moving forward or backward, his style remains effective. His hands often stay low, part of his approach to disguise his strikes and make them harder to read. That kind of movement-heavy, feint-heavy style demands strong cardio, and Szalay has proven he has it, going the distance in six of his wins, including two five-round fights. Szalay may need a better ground game in the UFC but with standup like his I firmly believe he can go a long way.

Baergeng Jieleyisi

Pros:
-Strong wrestling
-Submission threat
-Uses a lot of feints
-Good footwork
-Good grappling
Active ground and pound
-Heavy top position
-Athletic
-Aggressive
Cons:
-Loads up at times
-TDD needs work
-Open to being countered

This will be Jieleyisi’s third consecutive appearance on a Road to UFC season. He wasn’t originally slated to compete this time around but was brought in as an injury replacement. While Jieleyisi has shown he’s likely not UFC-caliber, he serves as a solid litmus test for prospects looking to prove they are.

He’s competent wherever the fight goes, but also shows vulnerabilities in all areas. On the feet, he has a good grasp of the fundamentals but tends to let his opponents dictate the pace. He often struggles to find his rhythm and ends up fighting from behind. His takedown defense has been a recurring issue, particularly in his two previous Road to UFC losses.

Though he does a respectable job defending off his back, Jieleyisi simply doesn’t win enough moments or rounds: he’s not a strong “minute-winner,” which is arguably his biggest flaw.

Prediction: The silver lining for Jieleyisi is that he’s not facing a wrestler, so he’ll have more opportunities to rely on his striking. The downside? Szalay is the best striker he’s faced in his career. Add in the fact that Jieleyisi is moving up a weight class and taking the fight on short notice, and the odds are stacked against him.

Stylistically, this might actually be a more favorable matchup for Szalay than his originally scheduled opponent, Ailinuer, who brought a lot of unknowns. Szalay is a much more polished striker. He’s technically sound, has a broader arsenal, and is defensively more responsible. I like Jieleyisi, but this is a brutal matchup for him.