
The UFC’s first PPV event of 2025 was a massive success in terms of the quality of fights. But the UFC 311 card nearly fell apart in the lead up to the big night.
Catastrophic wildfires in the area and one half of the main event pulling out complicated things to say the least. However, the main card still delivered in every way, with only the last fight of the night between UFC lightweight champion and #10 ranked last second fill in, Renato Moicano leaving something to be desired. Despite one literal slip, it was a clean victory for Islam Makhachev, sending Renato back to the drawing board in what will likely be his only shot at the lightweight belt. Not to mention one of the biggest ‘losers’ of this fight card, Arman Tsarukyan. Who will not be granted an automatic shot at the title again. Some pivotal losses took place on Saturday’s card at the Intuit Dome, meaning the next fight booked for the losing will be extra important.
Arman Tsarukyan
Arman Tsarukyan fumbled one of the biggest opportunities of his career thanks to an untimely back injury just hours prior to Friday’s weigh-ins. Tsarukyan would be sidelined from his high stakes rematch with potentially devastating consequences to his fight career.
UFC President Dana White made it clear in the post-fight press conference that Tsarukyan will not be next in line for a title shot.
It’s imperative that Arman get a good result in his next fight. It’ll likely be a tough opponent and he will need a finish of some kind to be booked for a title shot once again. Tsarukyan headed into UFC 311 fight week as the #1 ranked UFC lightweight.
For his next bout, Tsarukyan should draw a matchup against the Justin Gaethje vs. Dan Hooker fight winner on March 8 at UFC 313. That fight could potentially be a war so if Arman had to get back in the cage before that, he could look towards a guy like Max Holloway who is ranked at #5 as a lightweight. But the winner of #3 ranked Gaethje versus #6 ranked Hooker would be the perfect striking-first type of opponent to match Arman up against.
Tsarukyan’s next fight: Justin Gathje vs. Dan Hooker winner
Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano was taken down and submitted in the first round of his short notice title shot in the main event on Saturday. UFC lightweight champion, Islam Mackhachev, made short work of Money Moicano, in what the Brazilian reluctantly admitted after the bout was likely his only chance at the lightweight belt.
Renato entered the title bout with a #10 ranking and was originally supposed to take on #9 ranked Beneil Dariush. The 35-year-old former featherweight had won four in a row with three stoppages leading up to the fight. Realistically this was a freebee for Moicano and his stock will likely remain virtually unblemished. The Renato vs. Beneil fight needs to be rebooked as Dariush has not fought since December of 2023. Moicano didn’t seem to take too much damage so that could potentially be on the table sooner rather than later.
Moicano’s next fight: Beneil Dariush
Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov suffered the first defeat of his professional career on Saturday in an instant classic opposite of UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. Though the 29-year old lost a unanimous decision, it was a competitive high level showcase that came down to the last minute of the fight. Umar entered the bout ranked at #2 in the UFC’s bantamweight division. With Merab’s recent dominating victories over former champions Petr Yan and most recently, Sean O’Malley, Umar has a strong case for a rematch. Umar’s last victory was #4 Cory Sandhagen so the only fighter that would have a real claim for a shot at the belt would be #5 former flyweight champion, Deiveson Figueiredo.
Part two of Merab vs. Umar could be very interesting, especially seeing what game plan Umar, Khabib and company can come up with to counteract the cardio machine that is Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili.
Nurmagomedov’s next fight: Merab Dvalishvili
Jamahal Hill
Jamahal Hill was stopped late in the final round of a fight that had fans on the edge of their seats at UFC 311 on Saturday. Jiri Prochazka showed off his gas tank and diverse striking to eventually wear down Hill. A dynamic counter sealed the deal for ‘Sweet Dreams’ as he was dropped and pounded out seconds later. It was a bitter pill for Hill to swallow no doubt. Added to the fact that Hill has had multiple injuries, three cancelled fights and been finished twice all since his January 2023 victory over light heavyweight champ, Glover Texiera, it’s been a nightmare of a couple years for Hill.
Jamahal entered the fight at #3 in the UFC’s light heavyweight division while Jiri was ranked at #2. With all of these factors in mind, Jamahal should fight Aleksandar Rakic.
It comes down to #7 ranked Khalil Rountree Jr. who Hill was matched up with last year before his injury forced a withdraw, or Rakic. Khalil went on to put on an epic scrap in a losing effort on short notice against the champ, Alex Pereia. Or there’s #5 ranked, Aleksandar Rakic, who has lost his last three fights: By third round knee injury TKO to Jan Blachowicz in 2022, second round TKO opposite Jiri Prochazka in April of last year and a unanimous decision loss against Magomed Ankalaev in October. Rakic makes a little more sense as both men have been finished by Jiri and have a bit of work to do (more than 2-3 fights back to the title). Barring a last second replacement situation, of course.
Hill’s next fight: Aleksandar Rakic
Serghei Spivac
Despite having Jailton Almedia in some deep trouble early, Serghei Spivac was finished late in the first round on Saturday. Spivac has now lost two of his last four, since early 2023. Spivac took a round to choke Derrick Lewis before being stopped in two by Cyril Gane in September of ’23. Heading into the fight on Saturday, Spivac was coming off a round one armbar victory over #8 ranked heavyweight Marcin Tybura last August.
Serghei entered the UFC 311 as the #7 ranked UFC heavyweight while his opponent was right above him at #6.
The heavyweight rankings are crowded. Everyone has fought everyone. #9 ranked, Jairzinho Rozenstruik would make a lot of sense but he has a fight booked against #4 ranked Sergei Pavlovich. That fight is scheduled for Feburary 1 however. The loser of the fight would have either lost two or three of their last four bouts. It would also be a classic striker vs. grappler matchup as well as a fresh opponent either way.
Spivac’s next fight: Loser of Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland was on the wrong side of another quick finish to start UFC 311’s main card Saturday night. To say it was a disappointing result for Holland would be a massive understatement as the UFC gatekeeper fell to Reinier de Ridder via first round submission. Holland has now lost four of his last five fights since September of 2023. Holland has gone 0-2 at welterweight in two respectable showings against Jack Della Maddalena and Michael Page. Kevin dropped decisions to both fighters. Kevin is 1-2 at middleweight in that time. The victory came over Michal Oleksiejczuk at UFC 302 in June of last year.
Point blank, if Holland is dead set on continuing to compete at 185lbs it will likely continue to be difficult for him to find the win column or draw matchups that move him towards the belt. At this pace, it is not hard to imagine a matchup with a guy like Bo Nickal in his very near future. By no means is this any implication that Kevin Holland’s UFC roster spot is in jeopardy (it’s not), but Holland could easily see a step to a different tier with a couple more losses in ‘that’ fashion. That said, a fighter like Paul Craig would be a good matchup for Holland. Craig is 1-3 since moving down to 185lbs from 205lbs in mid 2023. His lone win in that time is a second-round finish over Andre Muniz. The Scotsman was finished by Brendan Allen and Caio Borralho at middleweight. Most recently, Craig lost a unanimous decision to Bo Nickal at UFC 309. The grappling ace badly needs a win and he’d likely be ready in time to match Kevin’s breakneck turnaround time between fights.
Holland’s next fight: Paul Craig