Our staff picks are a little light this week, and for good reason: UFC 311 arrives on Saturday with a very unexpected main event.

Up until Friday morning and the event’s weigh-ins, it was Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 headlining the promotion’s first Pay-Per-View of 2025. Then, due to a rather unexpected back injury suffered by Tsarukyan, the deck was shuffled, and Renato Moicano inserted into the lightweight main event.

That left Moicano’s original opponent, Beneil Dariush, as the odd man out. And it changes the UFC 311 headliner from a rematch to a “what if?” What if Moicano can to the unthinkable and upset Islam Makhachev on short notice? Stranger things have happened in MMA, though if we’re being honest, the odds are stacked against the Brazilian.

There’s almost nothing MMA fans enjoy as much as a good grudge match, and the UFC 311 co-main event between Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov was a powder-keg of hostility. The champ was unhappy with what he saw as disrespect from Nurmagomedov, cousin of UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagmedov, and likewise undefeated. Umar had denied such claims, but the two had to be separated at an early press conference nonetheless.

Our picks are in, four this week thanks to the late change-up on the UFC 311 card. Here’s who we see coming out on top on Saturday night.

Writer / FightHolland vs. de RidderProchazka vs. HillDvalishvili vs. NurmagomedovMakhachev vs. Moicano
Jay Anderson (4-2)
Eddie Law (4-2)
Alex Behunin (3-3)
Chris Prawdzik (3-3)
Brett Cagle (3-3)
Dylan Napoleone (3-3)
Patrick McCorry (2-4)
Mathis Desjardins (2-4)
Cade Morehouse (0-0)

Well, not surprisingly, no one sided against Islam Makhachev in his short-notice main event against Renato Moicano. Reinier de Ridder, facing Kevin Holland, was close favorite, with the former ONE Championship double-champ a selected by five or nine writers responding in his second UFC fight.

Things were likewise close in Prochazka vs. Hill and Merab vs. Umar, with Merab Dvalishvili and Jamahal Hill slight favorites.