Road to UFC Season 4: Episode 4 Breakdown and Predictions

Bantamweight, Lawrence Lui Vs. Qinghe Zhang

Lawrence Lui

Lui is stepping in on short notice for this fight, which isn’t all that surprising considering how often City Kickboxing fighters seem to get opportunities. It’s always a plus to see more Oceanic prospects on Road to UFC — the series could definitely use the depth.

Lui’s only loss came in a close split decision against Anthony Drilich, so the record holds up well. Stylistically, he’s a pure striker with limited offensive tools on the mat. His takedown defense in open space is solid, but his work along the cage still needs improvement. That said, even when he’s taken down, he does a good job of getting back to his feet quickly. Still, a strong wrestler could give him real problems.

On the feet, Lui is a Muay Thai specialist who does a nice job cutting off the cage, working behind a jab, and chopping away with leg kicks. He’s especially sharp with elbows, throwing them at every opportunity. I like the way he varies his striking patterns, though I’d like to see him let his combinations flow more often.

One concern is his tendency to rely on doing more visible damage rather than matching output, which could leave him vulnerable to being outworked by higher-volume fighters. Especially since he doesn’t carry one-shot stopping power.

Overall, Lui is a solid fighter, but one I see serving as a litmus test for rising prospects looking to break through.

Qinghe Zhang

Zhang is tough to study due to limited footage, but there’s enough out there to get a solid read. He’s a dangerous fighter, mainly because of his knockout power. He stays active with good volume, mixing up his targets well. Early on, his footwork stands out: he’s quick in and out, landing clean shots and avoiding return fire.

That said, he tends to advance with his chin exposed, and as the fight wears on, his output slows and he becomes easier to hit. He also doesn’t handle pressure well, both on the feet and especially on the ground. When taken down, he struggles off his back and can be controlled for long stretches. I’ve seen him get bullied in grappling exchanges and lose rounds because of it.

Zhang is definitely dangerous, but from what I’ve seen, he projects more as a solid regional-level fighter than a true top-tier prospect.

Prediction: Neither of these guys was originally slated for the tournament, but now they’re both in, and matched up. Both are strikers, so I don’t expect much grappling here. That said, they approach striking very differently: Zhang brings power and volume, while Lui is a more traditional Muay Thai technician.

I see this one going into the later rounds, and that’s where I give the edge to Lui. He’s the better-conditioned athlete and has a deeper arsenal on the feet. As long as he can weather the early storm (and so far his chin has held up) this fight should shift in his favor. I’m picking Lui to take over as the fight progresses and get the win.