Road to UFC Season 4: Episode 4 Breakdown and Predictions

The Road to UFC Season 4 tournament kicks off this week, and episode four wraps up the quarterfinal round with bantamweight and lightweight action.

The fourth season of the grand prix-style tournament once again offers a pipeline to the UFC for some of Asia’s up-and-coming fighters. Rinya Nakamura, Rong Zhu, and Hyun Sung Park are among previous winners. This week’s events will be held at the UFC Performance Institute in Shanghai, China, and we’ve scouted them for you!

Lightweight, Yuji Yannick Ephoeviga (11-0) Vs. Dom Mar Fan (6-2)

Yuji Yannick Ephoeviga

When fans saw Ephoeviga’s name among this season’s lightweights, many already pegged him as a favorite to win it all. The young Japanese prospect is one of the main reasons the UFC launched this show in the first place, as he’s a rising talent with serious upside.

While Ephoeviga isn’t a complete fighter just yet, he’s only a few refinements away from being a real contender. His striking shines when he can control the center of the octagon. He’s got a long, snappy jab and excellent footwork, the latter arguably his best asset on the feet. One of his go-to tactics is attacking the lead leg with kicks, constantly disrupting his opponent’s base and creating angles to strike from both sides.

Tactically, he has to stay sharp. His defensive gaps, especially in striking, are still a concern. He struggles to move his head off the centerline, making him vulnerable when opponents crash the pocket with volume. That said, his movement and ability to clinch up quickly against the cage make him tough to corral.

Ephoeviga doesn’t have a traditional wrestling background, which could become a limiting factor as he climbs the ranks. However, his cage wrestling is effective. He’s skilled at securing body locks, pulling opponents off the fence, and tripping them to the mat.

Once on the ground, that’s where Ephoeviga truly excels. Though he can be a bit static at times, he’s patient and composed. He doesn’t rush for finishes or dominant positions. Instead, he controls from top, chips away with short ground-and-pound, and seizes openings when they appear. More often than not, once he gets the takedown, he stays on top until the bell or closes the show with a finish.

If he can tighten up his striking defense, Ephoeviga has all the tools to become a serious problem in the division.

Dom Mar Fan

Fan is a strong addition to this season of Road to UFC, having been quietly building a name for himself in Australia with a string of exciting finishes. His only two losses come at the hands of Quillan Salkilld, who’s now thriving in the UFC. That’s a testament to the level Fan’s been competing at.

A decorated BJJ practitioner with over 50 medals to his name, Fan has successfully translated that grappling pedigree into MMA, with half of his wins coming by submission. His grappling is sticky and dangerous, especially because it’s backed by vicious ground n’ pound; his slicing elbows, in particular, do a lot of damage and open up submission opportunities.

While he’s always had a chain-submission approach, more recently he’s leaned into positional control, landing heavy, damaging shots that often lead to a finish. On the feet, Fan throws a lot of kicks, but he doesn’t stay on the outside for long. He prefers to pressure forward, get the fight to the fence, and work his grappling from there.

In close, he’s excellent at controlling posture and chaining takedowns against the cage. While he’s flashed some nice judo in the past, his bread and butter is solid cage wrestling. At just 25 years old, he’s clearly evolving with each fight.

That said, he’s still a bit raw. Right now, Fan thrives when he’s leading the dance—but when he’s forced onto the back foot or faces adversity, he tends to slow down and absorb more damage.

Still, I’m high on Fan’s potential. He has the skillset to build upon, and regardless of how this tournament plays out, I see him as a future UFC-level fighter.

Prediction: I hate that these two are matched up because they both have the potential to make the finals. It’s an even tougher pill to swallow for Fan as this is a brutal stylistic matchup for him. In open space, he’s visibly uncomfortable on the feet, and that’s where Ephoeviga thrives. I expect Ephoeviga to control the center of the cage, pick his shots, and steadily chip away.

Fan’s best path is getting inside and working his wrestling, but even there, Ephoeviga matches up well. He’s the more physical fighter and strong in the clinch. Fan does have some slickness on the mat and might create problems if he can get it there cleanly, but Ephoeviga’s poise and ability to control positions will be key.

Over time, I expect Fan to fade while Ephoeviga keeps the same steady pace. I’m taking Ephoeviga by late-round TKO.