Road to UFC Season 4: Episode 1 Breakdown and Predictions

Flyweight, Wataru Yamauchi (7-1) Vs. Namsrai Batbayar (7-1)

Wataru Yamauchi

Pros:
-Combination striker
-Strong kickboxing combinations
-Goes to the body well
-Accurate
-Good jab
-Excellent teeps
Cons:
-Sits in the pocket too long
-Poor head movement
-Questionable cardio
-Will get drawn into brawls

I see Yamauchi as a strong prospect, but his lone loss to Jo Arai raises some concerns. In that fight, he noticeably slowed down, absorbed too many clean shots, and suffered a brutal knockout. While that decline hasn’t been as evident in his other bouts, it remains a potential issue.

At his core, Yamauchi is a high-output striker who thrives on relentless offense. He consistently throws fluid combinations with his hands and legs, working the body well and mixing up his attacks with precision. His jab and teep are key tools, allowing him to control range before exploding into sharp, aggressive flurries. He’s also highly active with his kicks, switching levels seamlessly to keep opponents guessing.

If he avoids unnecessary brawls, he has the potential to run through some opponents. However, his striking defense remains a concern — he’s dangerous to trade with, but also hittable. The biggest question mark is his ground game, as there’s little to no footage available to assess it.

Namsrai Batbayar

Pros:
-Hits hard
-Forward pressure
-Solid wrestling
-Dangerous attacking the neck
-High work rate
-Physically strong
-Good cardio
Cons:
-TDD needs some work
-Loses position too often

Batbayar is a bit of a wildcard because his fights don’t reveal much about his overall skill set. On the feet, he leans heavily on his power and explosiveness, sometimes to a fault: he overcommits to his shots, leaving himself open to counters. However, he appears far more comfortable when initiating the wrestling. He frequently relies on trips, body locks, and double-leg takedowns to control opponents on the ground.

His cardio is a strong asset, allowing him to maintain a high pace and apply pressure deep into later rounds. While his wrestling is solid, his jiu-jitsu appears to lag behind. In scrambles, his aggressive, wrestling-heavy approach can cause him to overextend, giving opponents opportunities to reverse position or escape.

His only loss came against UFC fighter Nyamjargal Tumendemberel, the only high-level opponent he has faced. This fight should provide much-needed clarity on just how good Batbayar really is.

Prediction: This matchup is intriguing because there are still many unknowns about both fighters. Yamauchi’s takedown defense remains a question mark, while Batbayar’s ability to hold his own in extended striking exchanges is also untested.

I’m leaning slightly toward Batbayar. There’s no clear evidence that Yamauchi can handle a strong wrestling attack, which gives Batbayar a potential path to victory. However, Batbayar has shown vulnerability to counter strikers, and Yamauchi thrives in close-quarters exchanges.

Ultimately, it’s a tough call, but I’ll go with Batbayar by decision—though not with much confidence.