UFC 240: Cyborg Fighting UFC Finale Against Spencer?

UFC 240: Cyborg vs Spencer
Cris Cyborg vs Felicia Spencer, UFC 240 Ceremonial Weigh-In Credit: Jay Anderson/Cageside Press

Whether Amanda Nunes or free agency is next for Cris Cyborg, she must first get past unbeaten Felicia Spencer to set up the next stage of her career at UFC 240.

The biggest fight to make in women’s MMA, and arguably the biggest fight in the sport right now, is a rematch between double-champion Amanda Nunes and former featherweight queen Cris “Cyborg” Justino.  However, the writing is on the wall: Cyborg may be on her way out of the promotion and, her bout with former Invicta champion Felicia “The Feenom” Spencer at UFC 240 could be her final appearance inside the Octagon.

Lost in all of the free-agency speculation is that Justino (20-2, 1NC) needs a win if she is going to enter any other organization as a major draw.  The loss to Nunes, shocking and world stopping, is one that could fade into the rear-view mirror with a victory.  Discussions about going to Bellator to fight Julia Budd, PFL and a match-up with Kayla Harrison, and other destinations hinge on regaining some of the unstoppable aura that she carried for over a decade as one of the most dominant forces in the sport.

A collision between Nunes and Cyborg is a meeting of two forces so dominant that we may never see such a pairing of this magnitude in women’s MMA for many years to come.  The reality, however, is that Cyborg is on the final fight of her UFC contract.  A rematch with Nunes hinges on signing a new deal after much public discord between herself and UFC President Dana White.  The issue: White said that Cyborg did not want a rematch with Nunes.  Cyborg rebuked that she pushed hard for the rematch but that the UFC wanted her to commit to a new deal first.

Cyborg has been dropping hints for months on her social media that she is looking forward to free agency.  With videos of her exercising with ONE Championship gloves, or frequently praising the depth of the Bellator featherweight division, Cyborg knows that she commands value in the market should she elect to test the waters.

The role of spoiler goes to former Invicta FC champion Felicia Spencer.  The undefeated featherweight was brought in to bolster the division and had an impressive UFC debut in May when she stopped fellow former Invicta champion Megan Anderson in the first round.  She has stopped six of her seven opponents, including Pam Sorenson to become Invicta champion last November.

While Cyborg’s resume speaks for itself, Spencer watched her last fight and saw her vulnerabilities just as the entire world did.  The fight comes at a crucial time.  Germaine de Randamie made her case at bantamweight for the next shot at Nunes with her 16 second victory over Aspen Ladd two weeks ago.  If Spencer can deliver an impressive performance against a legend like Cyborg, it could be enough to draw interest and get Nunes back up to 145 to defend the featherweight title instead.

An upset for Spencer relies on a disciplined attack, luring Cyborg into over-committing on her strikes and changing levels for a takedown in the middle of the Octagon. Wearing her down with steady ground-and-pound early is key to opening her up for submission attempts, and will chop away at Cyborg’s gas tank.  Notably, the fight is scheduled for three rounds as opposed to five so Spencer cannot waste any time in pushing action.

The key for Cyborg is a more measured approach, getting in and out with strikes and using her physicality to break down Spencer over time.  Using precise kicks to the calf will help to cut down her mobility and make her more open for Cyborg to open up with combinations to end the fight.  While a loss like the one to Nunes is cause for her to be more cautious, Cyborg remains one of the most imposing forces in MMA and using her physicality remains the best route to victory.

Although the money for a rematch with Nunes is one  thing to consider, Cyborg will likely weigh the long-term benefits of competing in Bellator’s developing featherweight division for what is likely to be the final major contract of her career.  For Spencer, the lack of competition in the UFC means that she would be the de-facto top contender in the featherweight division with a win — which would give her the most leverage to gain her own fight with Nunes.