And so we get Cormier vs. Miocic instead. A more deserving fight from a sporting perspective. But one that isn’t about to compel casual fans to sign up for a streaming service, unless there is other programming on ESPN+ that interests them.
PPV points are a thing of the past, because you’ve eliminated the casual fan. Impulse buys (fans ordering a fight last minute) will drop as well, because you’re less likely to purchase something on impulse if you have to go through several steps. You don’t put the candy bars next to the cash register under lock and key, after all.
So Brock Lesnar walked. Can you blame Lesnar for not wanting to take what amounts to a multi-million dollar pay cut, potentially? Lesnar has historically held up his end of the deal, when it comes to promotion. There’s little doubt Lesnar vs. D.C. would have topped a million buys, at least prior to UFC PPVs moving behind the ESPN+ paywall. Very little doubt about it.
But instead, the UFC has opted to book a rematch of a fight that didn’t necessarily need one, though there’s an argument to be made for Miocic getting a rematch. After all, he had the most title defenses of any heavyweight champ.
The casual audience, however, doesn’t care about that. Three title defenses won’t propel Stipe Miocic to superstardom. A good chunk of them won’t even see the rematch. Just as many didn’t see Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier atop a frankly excellent double bill at UFC 236.
The death of the casual view for the UFC has resulted, arguably, in the death of the UFC superstar. The trade off of getting guaranteed money, is that casual fans will have a harder time tuning in for those few UFC stars they hear about in mainstream media. Which, in turn, will make it harder for the UFC to build those stars — and more concerning, it will be harder to lure in pre-packaged stars like Lesnar if the money isn’t there.
In Ottawa, UFC Senior VP, International and Content David Shaw talked about how Endeavor was changing its approach, to make it easier for fighters to build a fanbase around them. He didn’t, however, go into details. It will be interesting to see what the plan is. Push some budding stars on ESPN, rather than on PPV events, to get them over with viewers?
Combat sports is a lottery. It’s a crapshoot. The WWE gets to determine its outcomes, and can manufacture superstars. It doesn’t always work out as planned. The pro wrestling company wanted Roman Reigns to be their top guy, and fans rejected him at every turn — but at least the bulk of the process of star building is under their control.
In the UFC, you need to win, and arguably, have either a nation behind you, or the ability to promote yourself on the mic. If casual viewers are gone, you’re not able to build from within. If PPV dollars are gone, because casual viewers are gone, you can’t poach talent.
Maybe you can rely on ESPN to push fighters on the network itself, but can you rely on ESPN to do all the heavy lifting?
The end result of this becomes a landscape where the UFC still maintains a stranglehold on much of the top-tier talent in the sport — they are still the biggest game in town, after all — but loses out on the upper echelon of stars. Picture the PFL, where aside from Kayla Harrison, no one really outshines the rest of the pack. It’s all about the sport, rather. There may be some unintended benefits, in fact — no longer will you see superstars cut the line to a title shot, because there simply won’t be any.
However, there’s no denying that it takes some of the fun out of things. Fans love that big fight feel, which could be hurt if the biggest stars opt to compete elsewhere. Or go it alone (remember, McGregor has long spoken of being a promoter).
A lot, ultimately, will depend on how widespread ESPN+ adoption becomes. If UFC 236 is an aberration, dragged down by technical glitches that are subsequently corrected, perhaps we can breathe a sigh of relief. However, if sub-100K buyrates for UFC events continue (and UFC 237 is at risk, no question), than we could very well be witnessing the end of an era. The superstar era may be over.
