The battle between Robbie Lawler and Rafael dos Anjos at UFC Winnipeg is set to be a title eliminator, but the state of the division could affect those plans.
There are plenty of arguments about which division in the UFC is the most competitive. In 2017, the welterweight division won by a landslide with notable fighters both ranked and otherwise dotting the landscape. Two of those will go to battle on Saturday as former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler meets former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos in what Dana White has declared a title eliminator.
Welterweight champion Tyron Woodley is universally regarded as the best fighter at 170 pounds. He’s the one headlining events and is the most appealing option for a fight with former welterweight kingpin Georges St-Pierre. He’s a force of destruction with formidable skills.
But only two short years ago, all of the same things were being said about Robbie Lawler. “Ruthless” was the antithesis of long-time champion St-Pierre. Where GSP was often criticized for playing it safe, Lawler would consistently enter exciting battles with the best the welterweight division had to offer. For two years he walked away bloodied, battered, and always with his hand raised. When rumors of a St-Pierre comeback began circulating, fans were already prepared to buy tickets for the inevitable match-up.
In 2016, Woodley needed just a little over two minutes to scrap those plans by knocking out Lawler in the first round. Since then “The Chosen One” has looked more dangerous in every outing and Lawler’s year-long layoff raised questions about his career.
Lawler engaged in consecutive five-round battles with Matt Brown, Johny Hendricks, Rory MacDonald, and Carlos Condit. The bout with MacDonald, in particular, is regarded as one of the bloodiest battles in the history of the Octagon. There’s no question that Woodley is one of the hardest punchers in the division. But after so many battles, there was question if the limit had finally been reached on Lawler’s incredible chin.
Lawler came back after a year layoff to defeat Donald Cerrone in an exciting match-up. He survived a strong second round from “Cowboy” looking no worse for wear than he had before. While Woodley is the unquestioned best fighter in the division, Lawler’s reputation was built on performances that fans haven’t forgotten.
Rafael dos Anjos comes finds himself in a title eliminator in surprisingly quick fashion after a difficult 2016. After being a journeyman in the lightweight division for years, he went on a tear that included wins over Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis, and Donald Cerrone. His run was so impressive that it carried him to a bout with Conor McGregor in 2016. That bout never materialized, and instead, dos Anjos would hit the roughest patch of his career. He dropped back-to-back fights to Eddie Alvarez and Tony Ferguson that included losing the title. After being scheduled for one of the most high profile bouts of the year, he was now on the outside looking in at the title picture.
The move to welterweight was a peculiar one. He was not in the immediate title picture at 155, but he was still one of the best in the division. In his first outing at 170, dos Anjos defeated Tarec Saffiedine in a bout that had many questioning whether his skills would translate against the bigger athletes he now faced. When he faced top-ten ranked Neil Magny, he was able to capitalize on a trip by Magny and finish the fight by submission in the first round. Whether or not he had made critical changes to his game was unknown.
With Lawler and dos Anjos, the UFC has a unique contest featuring two former champions in what could be their last chance to get a title shot while in their prime. Stylistically, Lawler’s size and forward pressure will be the toughest challenge dos Anjos has faced in several years. Despite the talented opposition he has been matched up with, he has never faced anyone with the destructive capabilities of Lawler. “Ruthless” should look to get dos Anjos with his back to the fence where his movement will be limited. From there, he can impose his will by using his size to wear down dos Anjos until an opportunity to finish the fight presents himself.
For dos Anjos, the key will be to use his footwork and diverse striking to counter Lawler. A brawl with the former welterweight champion isn’t a scenario that favors dos Anjos so it is imperative he avoids staying in the pocket. The second factor: takedowns. Being able to get the fight on the mat will be critical as it neutralizes Lawler’s advantages on the feet. Furthermore, dos Anjos is an accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and should hold a decisive advantage in the grappling exchanges.
There is still no telling which division Georges St-Pierre will return to in 2018, but signs are pointing towards coming back to his old home at 170. If that is the case, the winner of Saturday’s bout likely waits until after Woodley and GSP settle their business. In the event of a long hiatus, a fight with Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson in the interim could be in the cards. If that does not come to pass, then a bout with Woodley is likely on the docket in the first half of 2018. In the final event on network television of the year, there’s plenty of reason to trust that Lawler and dos Anjos won’t disappoint.
