Road to UFC Season 4: Episode 1 Breakdown and Predictions

Strawweight, Xiaocan Feng (10-3) Vs. Arisa Matsuda (6-0)

Xiaocan Feng

I thought Feng should’ve taken some time off after her last fight and picked up another win or two before jumping back in. She was part of last season’s tournament and got knocked out in the finals by one of the nastiest head kicks we’ve seen, despite clearly winning the fight up until the third round. It’s a matchup she likely wins more often than not. That said, there are still major holes in her game, particularly in her takedown defense and ability to work off her back. Once opponents close the distance, she’s fairly easy to take down. Offensively, her striking shows promise. She uses her length well to keep opponents at range, landing consistently with her jab and mixing in a solid volume of leg kicks. However, she lacks real power, so her path to victory usually comes down to outpointing her opponent over the course of a fight.

Arisa Matsuda

Matsuda didn’t come into MMA with much hype, but she’s quickly proven herself. A former pro baseball player (a rare background in the sport) she’s remained undefeated and captured the interim DEEP strawweight title along the way. Matsuda is a high-output striker with sharp boxing fundamentals and light, agile footwork. While her takedown defense still needs improvement, she refuses to settle on the bottom and brings some nasty ground-and-pound when on top. She’s definitely someone Japanese MMA fans can rally behind.

Prediction: Feng still holds an edge in experience and youth, but Matsuda remains largely untested. Half of her wins have come against debuting fighters, and her lone quality win was arguably a fight she could’ve lost. That said, Feng’s record isn’t without blemishes—some of her losses have been rough, and even her wins haven’t come against particularly strong competition. On the feet, Feng will have a height advantage, but I don’t see it playing a major role. Matsuda pushes a solid pace and should be able to close the distance and land consistently to neutralize Feng’s reach.

The biggest gap between them is on the mat. While there isn’t enough tape to fully assess Matsuda’s wrestling, it may not need to be elite, as Feng’s takedown defense has been a clear weakness. Matsuda is the better grappler, and if significant damage is done, it’ll likely come from her ground-and-pound.

One variable is Feng’s size. Matsuda hasn’t faced anyone with her length yet, which could pose challenges. Still, I lean toward Matsuda as the more well-rounded fighter, though I expect a competitive fight at Road to UFC 4.