Road to UFC Season 4: Episode 1 Breakdown and Predictions

Featherweight, Keiichiro Nakamura (5-1) Vs. Park Eoh Jin (9-1-1)

Keiichiro Nakamura

Pros:
-Hits hard
-Uses a lot of feints
-Dangerous liver kick
-Accurate striker
-Good kickboxing
-Hard to read
Cons:
-Hands low
-Open to being countered

Nakamura is a promising talent with real potential, but this opportunity might be coming a bit too soon. All of his wins have come against aging opponents or fighters with near .500 records. To his credit, he’s done what you’d hope, finishing all of them in the first round.

While he’s shown some ability to land takedowns, there’s been little evidence of a submission game. His real danger lies on the feet. He starts on the outside with sharp feints and eventually finds the chin, carrying the kind of power that can change a fight with a single shot. He also hides a nasty left kick to the liver exceptionally well.

That said, there are clear defensive flaws. His chin stays high, and his hand placement needs major work. He often leads exchanges with his chin up, and his hands return to his face too slowly, making it feel like he’s one clean counter away from disaster.

Even if he’s not quite ready yet, this tournament could be a valuable developmental step. It’ll test him in ways he hasn’t been tested before, and that might be exactly what he needs.

Park Eoh Jin

Pros:
-Good wrestling
-Slick jiu-jitsu
-Submission threat
-Good ground and pound
-Good straight punches
-Strikes to wrestle well
Cons:
-Head sits on the centerline
-Slows as the fight goes

Jin has been on a strong run, rattling off eight straight wins after a 1-1 start to his career. Training out of a small gym in South Korea, he’s quietly built a solid résumé. While parts of his record are padded, he does hold wins over seasoned veterans, champions from other promotions, and even a former UFC fighter in Yui Chul Nam. His ceiling is still unclear, but the tools are there.

On the feet, Jin is a patient distance striker. He works behind straight punches, low kicks, and a well-timed teep to the body. While he has some stopping power, much of his striking is focused on touching and scoring rather than overwhelming opponents with volume.

Where Jin separates himself a bit is in the grappling. His wrestling isn’t elite, but it’s functional: he times his entries well and will often finish on the second attempt if the first fails. His best work comes when he’s able to mix in ground-and-pound while transitioning to the back, where he’s especially dangerous.

The big question marks for Jin going forward are his gas tank and striking defense. He has the skillset, but if his durability and cardio don’t hold up under pressure, it could limit how far he goes.

Prediction: This is a fun fight at Road to UFC 4, and it’s hard to imagine it going the distance. Technically, it’s competitive. Both fighters are flawed defensively, which opens the door for chaos. Offensively, though, I give the edge to Nakamura. He has better setups, a wider arsenal, and carries real fight-ending power. That said, his defensive lapses are just as concerning, if not worse, and Jin isn’t the kind of fighter to sleep on, even without one-shot power.

The biggest X-factor is the ground game. Jin has a clear path to victory if he can exploit Nakamura’s underdeveloped grappling. He’s also the more proven fighter, with experience against tougher competition, while Nakamura still has a lot of unanswered questions.

I’m siding with Jin here. H\is ability to mix things up and take advantage of Nakamura’s ground vulnerabilities gives him the edge. The pick is Jin by decision.