Road to UFC Season 4: Episode 1 Breakdown and Predictions

Flyweight, Yin Shuai (17-5) Vs. Kai Yoshida (6-1)

Yin Shuai

Pros:
-Submission threat
-Good kicks
-Solid wrestling
-Dangerous in exchanges
-Slick Jiu-jitsu
-Chain wrestlers well
-Explosive
-High work rate
Cons:
-Loose top control
-TDD needs work

I’m glad to see Shuai get another shot after his appearance last season. However, I wasn’t impressed with him going to a split decision against Kiru Sahota. That said, I did think he won, despite struggling with Sahota’s length. Shuai is well-rounded and has a solid gas tank, given his high work rate. His striking is effective both in the pocket and at range, where he utilizes leg kicks well.

I believe his wrestling is his strongest asset—he can explode into a double-leg or chain wrestle against the fence. However, his top control is lacking, meaning he often has to rely on catching submissions in transition or using his wrestling to dictate the fight’s pace. Looking at his record, I’m not a fan of either his losses or the level of competition in his wins. Still, when I watch him fight, I see real potential, and I’m hopeful for his future.

Kai Yoshida

Pros:
-Excellent distance management
-Good movement
-Active leg kicks
-Good bodywork
-Clean hands
Cons:
-Poor TDD
-Head movement lacks
-Poor grappling defense
-Easily gives up his back

I don’t understand why the UFC brings in fighters coming off a loss for Road to UFC. I was actually high on Yoshida until his last fight. There’s no excuse for a high-level MMA fighter to get caught in a leg scissors choke. It’s slightly less concerning since it happened against a solid opponent, but still an embarrassing way to lose. His ground game is clearly a weak spot, and his wrestling defense struggles due to poor technique, often leading to him giving up his back.

On the feet, his effectiveness depends on maintaining the right range. He keeps his hands low and chin high, so distance management is crucial for him. He has strong leg and body kicks, but his technique can get sloppy when he tries to open up. He’s at his best when he stays composed. When he’s settled, he controls the pace well with short combinations, mixing punches and kicks while utilizing smart footwork.

Prediction: Despite both fighters having some rough losses, I really like this matchup. The key difference is Shuai’s wrestling advantage, which is far more significant than Yoshida’s edge in striking. While Yoshida may have the upper hand on the feet, the gap isn’t nearly as wide as it is in the grappling department. I’m picking Shuai to win by submission.