
On Tuesday, UFC President Dana White went live on Instagram to make a series of massive announcements regarding the promotion’s upcoming schedule. Some more expected than others, but all massive, nonetheless. In case you missed them, here they are the big ones:
- On June 28th, Ilia Topuria will face Charles Oliveira in the main event of UFC 317 for the vacant lightweight title
- In the co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja will defend his flyweight against Kai Kara-France
- Dricus Du Plessis will defend his middleweight title against Khamzat Chimaev on August 16th at UFC 319 in Chicago
Once Jack Della Maddalena’s hand was raised last Saturday in Montréal, most of us knew what it would mean for the immediate future, especially International Fight Week. With Belal Muhammad now no longer holding the welterweight title, Islam Makhachev was going to move up in an attempt to become a two-division UFC champion. This also meant that Topuria was going to face Charles Oliveira at the end of June. Was Makhachev going to be forced to vacate? That was something we weren’t sure of, especially once the Russian posted on social media that he intended to keep the lightweight belt.
However, if “El Matador” was to meet “Do Bronx”, it had to be in a main event above the Pantoja vs Kara-France, which means a title needed to be on the line. For that reason, it wasn’t too surprising to learn that Makhachev did end up vacating, just like Topuria did early this year when he announced he was moving up.
Aside from these bookings making for an exciting summer slate, what is there to learn from them when looking ahead to September, October and the rest of the 2025 calendar? Here are my three main takeaways, as well as my schedule predictions for the second half of the year.
October Gets Two PPVs
2022, the first full post-COVID calendar year with no Pay-Per-View events at the Apex, had 13 total PPVs, including two in July. 2023, had 14 total PPVs, including two in March and July. 2024, also had 14 total PPVs, including two in June and October.
Using that information, it is fair to expect another 14-PPV year, which means one more month will need a second numbered event. The month that features IFW always gets a second PPV. Last year, it was June instead of July, because July only had four Saturdays instead of five. Same goes for this year, which is why IFW is in late June again, instead of early July. We haven’t seen two numbered events in September, November or December, which would suggest that October will once again get a second one.
If 2025’s schedule is to play out like last year’s, we can expect UFC 321 to be on October 4th. Where will it take place? Who’s to say? Maybe they go to Australia, for a double-header with Della Maddalena and Alexander Volkanovski. Maybe they go back to Salt Lake City, who has been getting one numbered event per year since 2022. We will have to wait and see.
The Main Omission
It’s hard to ignore the fact that not being a part of these announcements is the long overdue heavyweight title unification between Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall. There were rumours flying around about Aspinall potentially facing Ciryl Gane next. Whether it was going to be for the undisputed or the interim title was unclear, but with Jones seemingly not ready to get back in a training camp, the Englishman might have been looking to stay busy.
When Jones defeated Stipe Miocic back in November, we thought maybe we would have to wait until International Fight Week to see him fight Aspinall. Now that we have a main event confirmed for IFW, we can only wonder how much more we will need to wait. Main events are now booked until the fall. The September PPV is the earliest one without a main event confirmed, but Guadalajara would be a peculiar place for Jones and Aspinall to face each other.
So it seems the soonest we can see this fight is at UFC 321 on October 4th. Though, a fight of this magnitude probably just headlines Madison Square Garden instead. If we can wait until October, we can wait until November.
Time will tell whether this fight will ever materialize but for now, we will have to wait before we get some closure on this entire saga.
Who Headlines Noche?
Buried in between the giant announcements at lightweight and middleweight is perhaps the most underrated active champion attempting a fourth defence of his belt. When the UFC went to Mexico for a Fight Night card in late March, they announced that UFC 320 would take place on September 13th in Guadalajara. The date came to no surprise, as in both 2023 and 2024, they held Noche events on Mexican Independence weekend. This time, they will actually go to Mexico, and it will be a PPV event once again.
Last year, the UFC put a lot of Mexican talent on their Noche card but headlined it with an American facing a Georgian. Should the lesson here be that the UFC doesn’t care if their Mexican Independence Day card is actually headlined by Mexican talent? I think that was a way for them to maximize ticket sales, using Sean O’Malley’s stardom to appeal to as many fans as possible. I would expect them try harder to have a Mexican in the main event, this time around.
The obvious candidate would be Brandon Moreno, but his division’s champion is fighting on June 28th. Can Pantoja submit Kara-France quickly like he did Kai Asakura and make the turnaround for September? Maybe, but if that was the UFC’s Plan A, I believe they would’ve booked Pantoja earlier this spring, maybe in Miami like he was initially rumoured to, so that the turnaround would be much more realistic for the 35-year-old.
This tells me that a trilogy between Pantoja and Moreno isn’t the promotion’s first choice. So who’s a Mexican fighter that could realistically headline UFC 320? Unfortunately, there aren’t that many, but Yair Rodriguez is probably the second likeliest option. He already lost handily to Volkanovski, but the UFC doesn’t seem too eager to be in the Movsar Evloev business and needs a Mexican to be ready in September.
If Pantoja or Kara-France can be victorious without taking a ton of damage on June 28th, I would expect Moreno to face the winner. But if it’s a blood and guts war, we could be getting one of the least anticipated rematches instead.
Prediction For Rest of 2025 Calendar
UFC 320, September 13th (Guadalajara)
- Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Moreno 3
- Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern 2 (vacant strawweight title)
With Zhang Weili teasing a move up to flyweight and Valentina Shevchenko voicing interest in that fight, the strawweight division will need a vacant title fight. Virna Jandiroba has cemented herself as the undeniable number 1 contender, and Mackenzie Dern is coming off back-to-back wins.
UFC 321, October 4th (Location TBD)
- Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira 2
- Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev
With Magomed Ankalaev being a Dagestani fighter, he could always end up fighting in Abu Dhabi later that month. But Makhachev and Alex Pereira are two proven headliners, so it wouldn’t make sense to put them on the same card.
UFC 322, October (Abu Dhabi)
- Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev
- Valentina Shevchenko vs Zhang Weili
Aside from last year because of a hand injury, Makhachev has fought on every Abu Dhabi PPV dating back to 2021, headlining two of them. The UFC seems to be interested in building their Chinese audience, so having Zhang fight in a time zone that is friendlier to the Chinese fanbase would also make sense.
UFC 323, November (Madison Square Garden)
- Jon Jones vs Tom Aspinall
- Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes
If this heavyweight title unification is ever going to happen, it does appear that the line drawn in the sand is MSG in November. If Kayla Harrison defeats Julianna Peña in June, as she’s expected to do, then putting her in that coveted New York spot would also make a ton of sense.
UFC 324, December (Las Vegas)
- Khamzat Chimaev vs Nassourdine Imavov
- Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen
The nature of some upcoming results will dictate who’s available in December, but I believe that both Chimaev and Merab Dvalishvili will be victorious in their next bouts. I penciled in Nassourdine Imavov, but I could’ve put anyone. Imavov being so vocal in turning down the Caio Borralho fight could backfire. Plus, there’s also the scenario in which Reinier de Ridder runs through Robert Whittaker and jumps the line. I think Cory Sandhagen put a stamp on his status as the next title challenger with his latest performance.