Opposite Topuria at UFC 312 is Colby Thicknesse, also making his promotional debut. To add to the narrative, Thicknesse is a teammate of Alexander Volkanovski, the man Ilia Topuria defeated to claim gold. So there’s a gym versus gym rivalry in play.
Colby Thicknesse
Standing at five-foot-nine
Fighting at 205 lbs (Bantamweight)
25-years-old
New South Wales, Australia
Training out of Freestyle MMA
A pro record of 7-0
2 KO/TKOs, 2 Submission’s
How he will fare in the UFC
Thicknesse is stepping in on short notice, but the silver lining is that his opponent is also making his UFC debut and remains extremely raw. One of Australia’s most highly regarded bantamweight prospects, Thicknesse boasts a 3-0 professional record, following an 8-1 run as an amateur. In 2020, he secured the Oceania gold medal at IMMAF and has since been training extensively under Alexander Volkanovski and Craig Jones.
My initial impression of Thicknesse was that he doesn’t particularly excel in any one area but is well-rounded across the board. However, his best attribute is undoubtedly his ground game, driven by relentless pressure and toughness. While his wrestling isn’t elite—largely because he shoots from too far out—he does a better job setting up takedowns through volume striking. Once in dominant positions, he becomes a real threat, showcasing aggressive ground-and-pound and a slick rear-naked choke. Despite some issues with top control, he’s dangerous in mount or on an opponent’s back, always working to finish.
Defensively, he’s been hurt and dropped before but recovers quickly, and his cardio has broken opponents in the past. On the feet, he’s serviceable—he feints well, throws a high volume of strikes, and mixes up his attacks with body and leg kicks. That said, while he’s a solid young talent, the key word is “young.” I believe it’s too soon for him to dive into the deep waters of the UFC’s bantamweight division. Right now, he lacks the striking, wrestling, and physicality to truly thrive at this level.
Prediction
Predicting this fight is tricky since both Thicknesse and Topuria are relatively green with limited footage available. Stylistically, I favor Topuria’s striking and wrestling, though his ability to maintain a strong pace over extended minutes remains a question mark. That said, Thicknesse isn’t someone who pushes an insane pace either. He does have momentum on his side, having fought four times since Topuria’s last bout. Still, I lean toward Topuria as the heavier hitter, better wrestler, and superior grappler.
My pick: Topuria by TKO in round two.
