In a sport where anything can happen, upsets are absolutely going to happen. No one gave Matt Serra much of a chance against Georges St-Pierre, but for one night, Serra was the best welterweight on the planet. In 2025, we didn’t really see any upsets on that level, but there were certainly some big ones. So here’s our take on 2025’s Upset of the Year!
Upset of the Year 2025
Eddie Law: Brendan Allen def. RDR – Allen took a major risk accepting a short-notice fight against de Ridder, who was surging and likely one win away from a title shot. Four rounds later, RDR’s corner was forced to throw in the towel as Allen dominated the action and stole all of his momentum. With the upset, Allen positioned himself just a fight or two away from a crack at UFC gold.
Gabriel Gonzalez: Raoni Barcelos Over Payton Talbott. At the time, it felt like Talbott was being given another incrementally difficult challenge in his rapidly growing UFC career when he was booked to fight the unheralded Barcelos. Instead, Barcelos wrote his own script, outwrestling Talbott for the victory and one of the biggest upsets of the year early into 2025. In the end, it worked for both men as Barcelos’ profile grew while Talbott appeared to grow from the experience in his subsequent performances.
Jay Anderson: I looked at three candidates for upset of the year, and eliminated one quickly. Costello van Steenis vs. Johnny Eblen was an upset, but van Steenis is a high-caliber fighter who had been flirting with the top of the Bellator/PFL middleweight division for a while. That left Brendan Allen vs. Reinier de Ridder, and Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos. Allen is no slouch and it seems like his lack of self-promotion gets him overlooked more than anything. Payton Talbott though? He’s a UFC whiz kid, a future star, and on paper he should have defeated Raoni Barcelos. If they fought again tomorrow, I think he does. Yet he still dropped a lopsided decision to the Brazilian. He’s since bounced back with two wins including one over former champ Henry Cejudo, in Triple C’s retirement fight. Yeah. Yeah, I’m taking Barcelos vs. Talbott for Upset of the Year.
Brett Cagle: Ethyn Ewing vs Malcom WellmakerThe undefeated Malcom Wellmaker was one of the most talked about prospects in early 2025. His hype train came to sudden halt when Ethyn Ewing shocked the world on short notice. Walking down a feared puncher in Wellmaker, Ewing earned a victory that was one of the biggest shocks for oddsmakers this year.
Mathis Desjardins: Petr Yan def. Merab Dvalishvili [UFC 323]. While there were bigger upsets betting odds-wise, none dropped people’s jaws quite like seeing Petr Yan outmanoeuvering and solving the Merab puzzle in real time. The shocking nature of the result didn’t just come from Merab looking wholly unstoppable, it was compounded by the fact that this was rematch of a fight that Merab had already won with flying colours. Nothing is impossible in combat sports, but what Petr Yan accomplished at UFC 323 might be the closest thing there is to pulling off the impossible.
Daniel Vreeland: Raoni Barcelos vs Payton Talbott. To start the year, Raoni Barcelos was set up with the young up and comer that every one was hyped on. He was supposed to be the stepping stone for Talbott to get into the top 15 and set up a massive year for him. Nobody seemed to let Barcelos know that fact, as he proceeded to ragdoll Talbott in the wrestling department en route to an obvious decision victory. The fact that Talbott has continued that ascent since that fight just makes this fight more shocking in retrospect.
Bryson Hester: Costello van Steenis def. Johnny Eblen. Runner up: Petr Yan def. Merab Dvalishvili. Once again, Costello van Stennis vs. Johnny Eblen wins here, it was for the PFL Middleweight championship and Johnny was a heavy favorite. Eblen was also 16-0 and had defeated Gegard Mousasi among other standout fighters. Runner up is Petr Yan battering and thwarting nearly every takedown Merab hurled his way in the pair’s rematch for the UFC bantamweight strap.
End Result: Raoni Barcelos shocked a whole lot of people, including Payton Talbott, when he earned a decision victory over Talbott last January. Twelve months later, the shock still hasn’t totally worn off, and that’s our Upset of the Year.
