Welterweight, Luis Felipe Dias (15-5) Vs. Donavon Hedrick (6-0)
Notable Notes
- Hendrick is getting this fight on short notice
- Dias has 15 more fights
- Dias has eleven first-round finishes
- Hendrick has all first-round finishes (hasn’t fought past 2:48)
- Hendrick hasn’t fought anyone with a winning record
- Hendrick fought four guys past the age of 30 (one at 35 and one at 40)
- Dias is 2-2 in his last four
- Both only got this fight because they are middleweights
Luis Felipe Dias
-Excellent jiu-jitsu
-Submission threat
-Long jab
-Heavy leg kicks
-Dangerous in bursts
-Flat-footed
-Slows as the fight goes
-Sloppy technique
-Questionable chin
-Telegraphs takedown attempts at times
I scouted Dias three years ago and, at the time, considered him a legitimate prospect. But after a string of cancellations and back-to-back losses, he’s clearly not the same fighter. It’s honestly baffling why he’s getting this opportunity. He’s just 2-2 in his last four, and one of those wins was flagged by Tapology for questionable legitimacy: his opponent had lost thirteen straight fights. The other was over a guy who was just 2-0. Based on that résumé, it’s hard to justify this booking.
Dias is a BJJ black belt and that’s where his strengths lie. Once the fight hits the ground, he stays active and aggressively hunts for submissions with impressive technique. He’s methodical in how he locks things up. But in both of his recent losses, it became clear that his wrestling is lacking and that he’s not nearly as effective when forced to grapple off his back. His takedown attempts are often little more than desperation dives at the legs, rarely set up with any striking or feints, and even when he does land them, he has to work hard to secure top control.
While he remains dangerous throughout the fight, his cardio is a major concern. He noticeably fades after the opening round— “sluggish” might be the best word. As a result, we’ve seen him dropped, taken down, finished with strikes, and even submitted.
Striking-wise, Dias has power in both his hands and kicks, but his hand speed and output have significantly declined. Combined with already sloppy technique, the loss of speed and volume has left him looking like a stationary target.
With the wealth of Brazilian talent available, this feels like a truly questionable call from the matchmakers. Of all the prospects to bring in, Dias just isn’t it.
Donavon Hedrick
-Beating up on cans
-Beating up on cans
Hedrick is the definition of a can crusher. He’s never faced anyone with a real fighting bone in their body—no wins over a fighter with a winning record, and he’s never fought past three minutes. From what we’ve seen, he can finish fights via KO/TKO or submission, but against what level of competition? Not much. I’m not going to go in-depth on a guy with almost no resume.
Prediction: The outright pick is Dias. He’s been in the sport longer, and the experience edge is a massive gap between the two. If anyone picks Hedrick, it’s because they think poorly of Dias. If he wins, it would be a massive upset, but I think the bigger upset would be Dias not finishing this in under two rounds at the very least.
