Flyweight, Rashid Vagabov (13-2) vs. Paulo da Silva (11-1)
Notable Notes
- Vagabov has won by KO/TKO, submission, and decision
- Silva is 9-0 to the submission
- Vagabov is coming off four straight submissions
- Silva is 0-1 to the KO/TKO
- Silva is 2-0 to the decision
- Vagabov is 4-1 to the decision
- Vagabov is 4-0 for UAE Warriors
- Silva has nine wins against losing records, four of those without a win
- Vagabov’s two losses were to two undefeated fighters at the time
- Silva has seven first-round finishes
Rashid Vagabov
-Excellent wrestling
-Submission threat
-Excellent level changes/Quick timing
-Solid grappling
-Good ground and pound
-Physically strong
-Single strikes
-Low volume
Vagabov is one of the few Russian prospects from Khabib’s team to earn a shot on the Contender Series. His game is built around relentless wrestling and strong grappling. He times his entries well, shooting off his own strikes or slipping his opponent’s punches, and if the first attempt is stuffed, he’s quick to reshoot until he finds the finish. Shutting down his wrestling requires excellent takedown defense, because once he gets in on the hips, he’s tough to stop.
On the mat, Vagabov stays patient and calculated. He mixes in steady ground-and-pound, advances position when opportunities open, and has a smooth back take with a tight choke once he secures the neck. His wrestling is elite, but the big question is how far it will carry him given his limited striking. He doesn’t make major mistakes on the feet, but he also doesn’t offer much threat outside of looking for the takedown. Composed and disciplined, he avoids brawls and sticks to his strengths.
Overall, Vagabov is UFC-ready, but how high his ceiling is depends on whether he can develop more layers beyond his wrestling.
Paulo da Silva
-Good volume
-Good straight punches
-Submission threat
-Shoots from too far out
-TDD lacks
-Overextends on punches
Silva comes in riding an impressive 11-fight win streak with nine finishes, and at just 23 years old, he’s touted as a prodigy under Charles Oliveira. On paper, that looks strong—but the tape tells a different story. Only his most recent fight is available to watch, and in that bout, I thought he clearly lost all three rounds. It’s another case where the matchmakers likely didn’t dig deep into the footage before giving him a shot.
Silva has nine submission wins, but those aren’t likely to translate at higher levels. His wrestling is poor, and many of his grappling opportunities come from being too comfortable off his back. He gets taken down with little resistance and often looks content to work from guard rather than fighting to stay on his feet. Against stronger competition, that’s going to force him into striking exchanges he may not be ready for—something we already saw in his last outing.
On the feet, Silva has some positives. He throws in volume, uses clean straight punches, and shows flashes of solid striking. Still, he makes avoidable mistakes: reaching on his shots, staying in the pocket too long, and leaving himself open defensively. With more patience and refinement, his stand-up could be a real asset.
At 23, Silva has upside, but right now his process is flawed. He’s still raw, and at the UFC level, that gap is going to be exposed.
Prediction: This is a significant step up in competition for Silva. While he prefers to lean on his grappling, that’s going to play directly into Vagabov’s strengths. Silva may have the sharper striking, but he’s almost certain to be taken down. He already shows a tendency to accept bottom position, and against a wrestler like Vagabov, that’s not going to end well. Silva’s best chance is to make the most of the limited opportunities he gets on the feet, but those windows will likely be few and far between. I’ve got Vagabov by submission in round two.
