The Contender Series marches on this week, with light heavyweights and flyweights among the weight classes in action. 25 contracts have been awarded on DWCS 2025 to date, with four more fighters welcomed into the UFC in Week 6. Will Week 7 see similar success?
We’ve got this week’s breakdown and predictions ready to go! Read on ahead of Tuesday night’s Episode 7.
Light heavyweight, Rafael Tobias (13-1) vs. Jair de Oliveira (6-0)
Notable Notes
- Oliveira would be the shortest 205er in the UFC if he was to be signed.
- Both have wins by KO/TKO, submission, and decision
- Both have a combined 13 first-round finishes
- Oliveira is moving down to 205
- Oliveira doesn’t have a win over someone with a winning record nor below 30
- Oliveira has five finishes all in round one
- Tobias will be five inches taller
- Both guys you’ve probably seen fighting at your local grocery store
Rafael Tobias
-Physically strong
-Credible jiu-jitsu
-Heavy ground and pound
-Submission threat
-Lacks head movement
-Vulnerable in exchanges
-Questionable chin
Another questionable selection from the matchmakers, Rafael Tobias comes in with a shiny 13-1 record at just 22 years old—but the résumé doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. Most of his fights have been in small Brazilian promotions with little accessible tape, and the one time he stepped up in competition, at LFA, he was knocked out in the second round by what I’d call a proven but low-level fighter. He’s never been successful in a cage I rate at all, and that’s concerning when having thirteen wins.
On the feet, Tobias is messy. He throws with decent volume and carries good power, but his technique is sloppy and his defense is a major liability. His head doesn’t move, he overextends on strikes, and he’s already been knocked out once.
He’s billed as a grappler, but his actual level is unclear. Most of his takedowns come from body-lock trips in the clinch, and his wrestling doesn’t look strong enough to consistently bring fights to the mat. Even when he does, his grappling has shown holes—he’s been swept by lesser opponents, and many of the submissions he’s picked up have come against fighters who shouldn’t have been getting caught in the first place.
Jair de Oliveira
-Finisher
-Lightweight fighting at light-heavyweight
Matchmakers should be ashamed when bringing in guys like this. They just look at his record and say, “Sure, why not?”. They don’t look into their fights, nor do they do any legwork at all. Very lazy at times, and it shows. Oliveira is a 5’9″ 205er that’s fought at heavyweight. He’s decently athletic but is punching up at the sky to connect. The best guy he’s beaten is a 5’7″ 37-year-old. They are really grasping for straws when it comes to middleweight and up, but it should be important to know that giving undeserved guys like this is only gonna hurt your product in the future rather than help it.
Prediction: Going into a Tobias fight, I figured whoever he’s fighting could have a chance. He SHOULD run through Oliveira. With how flawed Tobias is, he’s at least in the right weight class and has potential to be halfway decent in the future. He does have a chance to get caught if he strikes, but has a wide open path if he wrestles—bigger, stronger, and more technique. Tobias should win by submission in round one, and other than that, it’s a loss for Tobias. Either way, it’s not much of a win.
