DWCS 2025: Episode 6 Breakdown and Predictions

Light heavyweight, Mahamed Aly (4-0) Vs. Iwo Baraniewski (5-0)

Notable Notes

• Baraniewski is five years younger
• US debut for Baraniewski
• Aly has a win over UFC vet Jared Gooden
• Aly hasn’t even been fighting for two years
• Baraniewski has never been outside round one as a pro
• Baraniewski has twenty-one more fights than Aly as a pro and amateur
• Three of Aly’s wins come against losing records. Two in their upper 30s

Mahamed Aly

Aly is a decorated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, boasting an impressive résumé that includes IBJJF World Championships in both Gi and No-Gi, a European title, and two ADCC Trials wins. With over 100 competitive grappling matches and 70 medals to his name, you’d expect his MMA game to center around his elite ground skills—but surprisingly, Aly has spent very little time showcasing that side of his game inside the cage.

Instead, he’s shown unexpected confidence on his feet. All three of his finishes have come via strikes—two by head kick and one with a hook to the body. For someone with no traditional striking background, Aly has developed into a surprisingly dangerous kickboxer. He throws a powerful roundhouse, attacks the body with intent, and chips away at the legs with low kicks. Occasionally, he’ll get creative with techniques like ax kicks, displaying impressive dexterity for a fighter his size.

Aly’s hands are solid as well. He throws in volume, mixes targets well, and uses both sides effectively. He also integrates step-in knees and sharp elbows, especially in the clinch or when initiating it.

That said, his level of competition leaves some questions. Three of his wins came against very low-level opposition, and his most recent victory was over former UFC fighter Jared Gooden, who had no business competing at light heavyweight. Aly did what he was supposed to in that matchup, but it didn’t answer many questions about how he’ll fare against stiffer competition.

There are some concerns around his striking defense, particularly as he climbs the ranks and faces more competent strikers. And while his kickboxing has looked sharp, it would be smart to incorporate his world-class grappling—especially given how rare that level of jiu-jitsu is in the heavier weight classes.

Still, Aly has shown promise, and there’s reason for fans to be excited about his potential in the light heavyweight division.

Iwo Baraniewski

Baraniewski is one of the more promising young prospects in the division. A highly decorated judoka, he was a junior world champion and a three-time Polish national champion. He also found success in amateur MMA, going 17-3 with an active schedule, and captured both GAMMA European and World titles. He’s currently riding a 15-fight win streak and has steadily developed into a well-rounded mixed martial artist.

While not the most technical striker, Baraniewski carries real power in his hands and throws a solid one-two, especially when he decides to explode forward. His judo base is most evident in the clinch, where he excels with inside trips and throws, but he’s also capable of blasting through opponents with a strong double-leg takedown.

His grappling background has been a major asset—especially in a division where high-level grapplers are relatively rare. On the mat, Baraniewski is efficient and dangerous. He’s excellent at passing guard with pressure-heavy top control, using upper-body pressure while pushing off the knee to clear space. Once in a dominant position, he’s a serious threat—whether it’s with vicious ground-and-pound or hunting for submissions.

At just 26 years old, Baraniewski has the foundation and experience to be a real problem in the division. While he hasn’t yet faced high-level opposition, his extensive background in both judo and amateur MMA gives him a strong platform to build on. He’s a fighter with multiple paths to victory and plenty of upside.

Prediction: This is a better matchup than a lot of what we currently see in the UFC’s light heavyweight division. It’s a tough fight to call, but an exciting one to watch play out.

Baraniewski typically looks to impose his grappling, but the question is whether he’ll be as eager to take down someone as credentialed as Aly—an accomplished jiu-jitsu black belt with IBJJF and ADCC accolades. Based purely on their MMA careers so far, Baraniewski has leaned more on his grappling, while Aly has surprisingly established himself as more of a striker. That said, both men are well-rounded and comfortable wherever the fight goes.

If their grappling cancels each other out, I favor Aly on the feet. He’s the bigger, more athletic fighter with a wider variety of striking tools and the ability to fight at a solid pace. While he hasn’t used his jiu-jitsu much in MMA, Aly is the more decorated grappler on paper.

It’s a close fight, but I’m picking Aly by decision. Regardless of the outcome, this is one that fans should definitely enjoy.