Lightweight, Chasen Blair (7-3) Vs. Samuel Sanches (10-1)
- Blair fought (and lost) last season on the CS
- Blair is 7-2 for Cage Warriors
- Blair is 0-1 to the decision
- Blair has lost by KO/TKO, submission, and decision
- Both have a combined 12 first-round finishes
- This will be the US debut for Sanches
- Sanches is 2-0 to the decision
Chasen Blair
-Strong wrestling/Upper-body
-Excellent ground and pound
-Knockout power
-Solid jiu-jitsu
-Good positional grappling
-Counters very well
-Submission threat
-Cardio needs improvement
-Easily backed up
-Lacks head movement
Surprised to see Blair back on the Contender Series after last season. He looked rough getting stopped by Kody Steele, who I don’t view as UFC-level competition. Granted, Blair took that fight on short notice and did bounce back with a win, so it’s not unreasonable for him to get another chance.
Before the fight with Steele, I was actually picking Blair to win. He’s a Division I collegiate wrestler but struggled to take down Steele, a BJJ specialist, which forced him to strike instead. I didn’t like how he got walked down, showed little head movement, and faded quickly.
Blair has lost every time he’s faced a decent opponent, but I still think he’s a solid fighter. On the feet, he throws a lot of volume and packs power from both sides, often landing good two-punch combinations. He needs to improve his cage control and head movement to avoid getting hit so much.
His wrestling is decent, mainly coming from clinch work with upper body control, allowing him to easily transition to the back once he gets a takedown. He’s a big threat if he can secure the takedown—capable of heavy ground-and-pound or finding submissions. Blair has three submission wins, each with a different technique, showing diversity in his attack.
He’s tough in the first round, but past that, he struggles. His cardio drops off, and with it, his defense deteriorates. His wrestling style works early but loses effectiveness as the fight goes on, leading to more damage taken.
Samuel Sanches
-N/A
-N/A
There isn’t enough footage of Sanches available to fully assess his strengths and weaknesses. From what I can tell, he’s another Brazilian prospect coming out of Demo Fights with a padded record. His wins—and his sole loss—have come against low-level competition.
The clips I’ve seen show he does have some talent. He has good length, which he uses effectively both on the feet and on the mat. He throws volume and chops away at the lead leg with kicks. Offensively, he seems to be a capable grappler as well. That said, I’ve also seen him get taken down by lesser opponents, and his tendency to leave his chin up when striking is a concern.
Notably, the Jailton Almeida connection is strong this season, with three of his teammates—including Sanches—coming in with limited footage.
Prediction: The forced pick here is Blair, mainly because there’s too much unknown about Sanches. Blair’s wrestling gives him a good chance to get takedowns and potentially expose any gaps Sanches has on the mat. He could also punish Sanches for poor hand positioning on entries. That said, I’m not confident in this pick—Sanches may simply be a typical Brazilian regional-level fighter. Blair by submission in round one is my prediction.
