DWCS 2025: Episode 5 Breakdown and Predictions

We’ve arrived at the midway point of DWCS 2025, and we’ve already seen one Contender Series winner debut. Last week, Mandel Nallo, Cezary Oleksiejczuk, Tommy McMillen, and Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani picked up UFC contracts, bringing the season total to 16 out of a possible 20.

Week 5 brings about a shot at redemption for Chasen Blair, who came up short last season, while Steve Asplund, an LFA veteran, steps in on short notice. There’s lots to unpack so let’s get right to it.

Steven Asplund (5-1) Vs. Anthony Guarascio (4-0)

• Asplund is taking this fight on short notice
• Guarascio is coming off a win over DWCS alum Bailey Schoenfelder
• Guarascio is the current CFFC champion
• Asplund has finishes in rounds one, two, three, and by decision
• Guarascio has never fought past 2:30 as a pro and amateur
• Asplund went 6-0 as an amateur and won multiple titles

Steven Asplund

Asplund is a solid short-notice pickup because he always shows up to fight. Over the past two years in LFA, he’s been involved in some truly entertaining brawls. He’s far from a polished, complete fighter, but at heavyweight, sometimes sheer toughness is enough. He wins by absorbing damage while dishing out more until his opponent breaks.

That said, his game has major gaps. His takedown defense is poor, and every time he hits the mat, he’s getting mounted or having his back taken. On the feet, he thrives with volume, throwing hands and kicks in bursts, mixing in solid body shots and a decent jab. He has some real offensive weapons, but defensively, he’s lacking. His head movement is not there, and he rarely ever avoids strikes, meaning he takes damage as the fight goes on. Still, he keeps throwing, and eventually, he can overwhelm opponents.

Asplund is a “kill or be killed” fighter; blood is guaranteed in his bouts. The bigger concern is the level of competition. All of his wins have come against outmatched or out-of-shape journeymen, and they aren’t particularly clean wins. Overall, Asplund is the quintessential regional heavyweight, but that’s the ceiling of his potential.

Anthony Guarascio

Pros:
-Heavy hands/One-punch power
-Good bodywork
-Fast starter
-Good jab

Cons:
-Wild striking
-Easily hit

Guarascio has quietly put together a solid résumé. He started his amateur MMA career with an 0-2 record and one no-contest, but has since rattled off six straight wins. He also went 3-0 in amateur kickboxing and picked up a win in cage boxing. As a pro, he’s coming off a big win over Contender Series alum Bailey Schoenfelder, which earned him the CFFC heavyweight title.

Guarascio is a no-nonsense power puncher who wastes no time getting after it. He brings chaos, but it’s a controlled kind: he’s wild, yet not reckless. There are some tools behind the aggression: he doubles up the jab, goes to the body, and mixes in some decent kickboxing. His right hand is his go-to weapon, often firing off a basic one-two.

Defensively, he’s wide open. He doesn’t move his head and is so eager to get inside that he often takes unnecessary damage. So far, his chin has held up, and he’s usually able to land first before his opponent can capitalize.

Guarascio could hold his own in the UFC. He hits hard, comes forward, and brings the kind of energy that heavyweight fighters have been lacking. His ceiling is limited by a lack of technique and defensive polish, but as a pure action fighter, he fits right in. Heavyweight needs bodies, and Guarascio is a wrecking ball who guarantees chaos.

Prediction: What a car crash this fight is going to be. Guarascio is the kind of fighter who can end things the moment he lands, while Asplund knows he’s in for a war. Both are messy, aggressive, and exciting strikers, but neither shows much defense.

Guarascio is an early finisher, and if he can’t put Asplund away quickly, it’s unclear if he has the stamina to keep up. He does have more power, and his chaos is slightly more controlled than Asplund’s. I expect a war in round one, and if it drags on, it will turn into a sloppy slugfest. On paper, a drawn-out battle favors Asplund, as he’s gone into the later rounds before, but he’s clearly slowing down. Guarascio by KO in round one. Even if it stretches past five minutes, I still expect him to land the more impactful shots.