DWCS 2025: Episode 3 Breakdown and Predictions

Light heavyweight, Alik Lorenz (6-1) Vs. Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev 6-0)

Notable Notes

  • Lorenz’s sole loss came in under a minute
  • Lorenz has never seen the scorecards
  • Both have a combined nine first-round finishes
  • Lorenz is 4-0 under the Cage Warriors banner
  • Yakhyaev has won via Decision, KO/TKO, and Submission
  • Yakhyaev is the current Ares FC champion
  • The last three fights of Yakhyaev have been title fights

Alik Lorenz

Pros:
-Fast starter
-Hit hard
-Good leg kicks
-Good ground and pound
-Submission threat
Cons:
-Shaky chin
-Poor TDD
-Vulnerable to being countered
-Brings his hands back to his face too slowly

It’s no surprise to see Lorenz land a Contender Series shot. He fights at 205, has LFA experience, and boasts a 100% finish rate. His style is awkward, but it works for him. He forces the action with a stiff, powerful jab and marches forward behind heavy shots. He’s not particularly technical or fast, but he relies on his power and physicality to break opponents down. When he hurts someone, he’s effective at closing the show.

That said, there are clear concerns, especially on the defensive end. Lorenz is often beat to the punch, carries his hands low, and absorbs far too many clean shots. He tends to do his best work while standing in the pocket, eating shots to land his own, essentially trusting his chin to get him through. That’s a dangerous way to fight at any level, let alone against more polished opposition.

His cardio held up in his most recent outing, which was the first time we really saw it tested. Still, struggling with a 6-5 fighter isn’t the best look, and it showed that he can be dragged into deeper waters.

Lorenz is a dangerous finisher and a physical presence in a shallow division. But the truth is, a below-average fighter can still find success at 205. His power makes him a threat, but his limitations, especially defensively, are going to be exposed as the competition stiffens.

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev

Pros:
-Excellent ground and pound
-Submission threat
-Solid wrestling
-Strong positional grappling
-Physically strong
-Strikes to wrestle well
-Good jiu-jitsu
-Fast starter
-Heavy top position
-Heavy hands
-Scrambles well
Cons:
-Loads up
-Cardio needs work

Yakhyaev is one of the top light heavyweight prospects in the world, and it’s great to see him get a Contender Series opportunity. A former heavyweight champion in Khan Fight and the current Ares FC light heavyweight titleholder, he’s already compiled a strong résumé—especially for someone competing in a division where prospects often face weak competition. His last three opponents have been legitimate tests, and he’s passed each one convincingly.

That said, he’s not without flaws. In his bout with Nikolay Kovalenko, he began to fade after the first round, and his striking got noticeably sloppy as the fight wore on. Still, when he’s fresh, Yakhyaev is dangerous on the feet: not just because of his pressure and power, but because he’s surprisingly technical. He excels at closing distance with his hands, using that pressure to set up his wrestling.

His wrestling is a standout strength. He’s effective in the clinch and against the cage, has clean entries, and consistently cuts the corner to secure takedowns. Once he gets on top, Yakhyaev is a nightmare. His ground-and-pound is vicious; he uses short elbows with excellent wrist control to create space and do real damage in tight positions. And for a bigger fighter, his submission game is advanced. He’s especially dangerous attacking the neck, whether it’s with a rear-naked choke, darce, or guillotine. Once he establishes top control, he’s extremely hard to shake off.

All-around, Yakhyaev is a complete threat and exactly the type of prospect the UFC light heavyweight division needs. If he continues to develop and tighten up his pacing and striking discipline, I see him as a future top-10 UFC contender, at minimum.

Prediction: The only real path to victory for Lorenz is catching Yakhyaev with something big early and scoring a knockout. It’s not impossible; Yakhyaev fights aggressively and will give Lorenz some chances in the pocket. But from what I’ve seen, Yakhyaev’s chin has held up well, even under pressure, and I expect it to do the same here.

Where this fight likely gets decided is on the ground. Yakhyaev holds a massive advantage there. Lorenz has been taken down and reversed by far less capable grapplers, and against someone with Yakhyaev’s top game and pressure, that’s a recipe for trouble. Once it hits the mat, I don’t see Lorenz surviving long.

It’s heavyweight MMA, or close enough to it, so anything can happen. But skill for skill, this isn’t close. Yakhyaev should dominate. I’m taking Yakhyaev by first-round submission.