The Road to UFC 4 Episode 5 and 6 card (split into two broadcasts, but basically one event) is weirdly headlined and co-headlined with UFC fights. I’d rather see them do non-tournament bouts with prospects because that’s what this show is about but alas, I’ll give my quick predictions.
- I’m picking Bruna Brasil to beat Ming Shi. Brasil is mid, but Shi is arguably the worst fighter to win an RTU tournament. Brasil has fights where she doesn’t show up, but at worst, I still believe she’s better than Shi.
- I really like watching Nyamjargal Tumendemberel fight, and he’s going to be welcoming newcomer Terrance Saeteurn. I guess I’d pick Saeteurn because I believe he is durable enough to outlast Tumendemberel and win a close decision
Now on to the Road to UFC 4 fights!
Featherweight, Li Kaiwen (15-6) Vs. Nakamura Keiichiro (6-1)
Li Kaiwen
Pros:
-Volume striker
-Heavy hands
-Good right hand
-Dangerous pocket striker
-Good leg kicks
-Fast hands
Cons:
-Too willing to brawl
-Fight IQ lacks
-Not much off his back
-Sits in the pocket too long
-Lacks head movement
-TDD needs work
-Poor cardio
-Overzealous when chasing the finish
Keiichiro Nakamura
-Hits hard
-Uses a lot of feints
-Dangerous liver kick
-Effective footwork
-Accurate striker
-Good kickboxing
-Improved TDD
-Hard to read
-Hands low
-Open to being countered
Prediction: Both fighters impressed in the opening round of the tournament, but to me, the biggest statement came from Nakamura. He completely shut down arguably the favorite to win the bracket and did so in highlight-reel fashion.
That said, there are still concerns with Nakamura, especially his striking defense. His chin tends to stay high, and his hand placement is sloppy. He often enters exchanges with his head upright and is too slow to bring his hands back to guard. Those habits could be dangerous against someone like Kaiwen.
Kaiwen is an aggressive, in-your-face action fighter. He brings pressure, throws volume, and tests chins, but his own defense is porous, and his fight IQ has raised questions. That reckless style could be exactly what’s needed to test Nakamura’s chin, but it also plays into Nakamura’s strengths.
If Nakamura stays disciplined, uses his footwork to circle out, and punishes Kaiwen for rushing in, he should be able to take over the fight. In the end, Kaiwen’s willingness to eat shots will likely be his downfall. If he had better defense, I’d give him a stronger chance—but this feels like a matchup tailored for Nakamura to shine again.
