It’s that time of year again. Dana White’s Contender Series is back, as The Ultimate Fighter 33 wraps up its current season. The Contender Series has become the primary point of entry for fighters moving into the ranks of the UFC, with 42 contracts awarded in 2024 alone – down, in fact, from 46 the previous year, but still an astonishing number (in comparison, just 16 contracts were handed out in the show’s inaugural season).
The first episode airs Tuesday, so let’s get right down to it with our breakdown and predictions of DWCS 2025 Episode 1!
Middleweight, Neemias Santana (7-2-1) Vs. Ilian Bouafia (6-0)
Notable notes
- Ilian Bouafia is a big middleweight at 6’5″
He’s three inches taller in this matchup - Bouafia has fought twice at 205
- Bouafia has superior training partners
- Both have a combined 11 wins via KO/TKO
- Santana is 1-1 to the submission
Neemias Santana
Pros:
-Durable
-Dangerous in the pocket
-Heavy ground and pound
-Thrives in the chaos
Cons:
-Plodding footwork/Flat-footed
-Rushes in on straight lines
-Struggles off his back
-TDD lacks
-Sloppy/Wild striking
-Struggles against the cage
-Poor cardio
-Lack of setups and useful feints
I came away underwhelmed after watching Santana’s tape. To put it simply, he’s a fighter in an MMA cage wearing MMA gloves. Meaning he’s got the grit and willingness to scrap, but lacks the technical foundation to consistently succeed.
Santana relies heavily on landing a knockout or doing more damage than his opponent, rather than outclassing them with skill. He wants to fight on the inside, where he’s most dangerous, but the way he gets there is fundamentally flawed. Instead of cutting off the cage, he follows and chases, leaving himself wide open. He walks forward with his hands low, no head movement, and invites damage more than he avoids it.
His desire to brawl in the pocket is clear, but so is his lack of defense, which makes those exchanges a coin flip at best. Despite wanting to close the distance, he’s easy to take down. He lacks the footwork to close space safely or exit cleanly, struggles when backed against the cage, and shows weak fundamentals in takedown defense: no underhooks, no hip positioning.
Toughness and forward pressure are valuable traits, and Santana has both in spades. But when toughness is your most prominent attribute, and it overshadows your skillset, it becomes more of a liability than an asset.
Ilian Bouafia
Pros:
-Good straight punches
-Solid jab
-Good pull-counter
-Primary left hand
-Good jab-cross
-Good counter striker
-Good movement
Cons:
-Can be repetitive
-Chin hangs in the air
-Questionable chin
Bouafia is clearly a work in progress. The physical tools and base skills are there, but his game is still relatively one-dimensional. At 6’5″ with a long reach, he has the frame to be a real problem on the feet, and his striking shows flashes of promise. He works well behind a jab and a straight right, and his fundamentals are clean. But beyond that, there isn’t much layering to his offense.
As fights go on, his striking tends to flatten out into a predictable jab-cross rhythm, which makes him easier to time and counter. He rarely kicks, rarely targets the body, and overall doesn’t offer enough variation to keep opponents guessing. The potential is there for him to be much more dynamic, but right now, he’s too easy to read.
Defensively, he has moments where he shows the ability to slip and counter, but when he gets hit clean, it matters, and he’s been visibly hurt more than once. That raises some questions about his composure and durability at higher levels of competition.
Still, with the right coaching and experience, there’s upside. Bouafia has the size, tools, and base skillset to become a legitimate threat—he just needs refinement, variety, and time.
Prediction: I feel confident breaking this one down. For Santana, the path to victory is clear: he has to make it a dog fight. He needs to walk forward, apply pressure, and force Bouafia into a brawl. If he shows too much respect or tries to fight a technical battle, he’s likely going to get picked apart. Santana has the better chin and thrives in chaos, but that’s a risky game, especially against someone with Bouafia’s reach and composure.
Bouafia, while still raw, has more tools at his disposal. He’s the cleaner striker, has better fundamentals, and defensively, he’s much sharper. He’s never been finished, and if things get dicey on the feet, there’s a chance he could mix in takedowns to change the rhythm.
I’m leaning towards Bouafia. He may not be polished yet, but he has more ways to win. Give me Bouafia by decision.
