Road to UFC Season 4: Episode 2 Breakdown and Predictions

Lightweight, Mansher Khera (13-2) Vs. Aziz Khaydarov (21-6)

Mansher Khera

Khera is stepping in on short notice for this fight, and while it may not come with a straight UFC contract, I like that he’s getting a featured bout. At 33 years old, this is a must-win opportunity for him. Despite his age, he doesn’t have a lot of MMA mileage—he’s only been competing professionally for three years—but he brings a strong foundation in jiu-jitsu.

Khera is a decorated grappler: a former 2018 Polaris welterweight champion, an ADCC Trials winner, and a four-time No-Gi World Champion. As with many jiu-jitsu standouts crossing over into MMA, results can be hit or miss—but I believe Khera has the skills to compete at the UFC level.

His striking is still a work in progress. While it’s been serviceable, he does mix up his targets well, going to the body and attacking the legs with kicks. However, his striking in open space is awkward, and his body language shows discomfort. His wrestling isn’t elite in terms of first-shot entries—he lacks clean setups and sharp timing—but he excels in chaining attempts together. He’s especially good at attacking single legs, running the pipe, hitting knee taps, inside trips, and executing mat returns. When he gets the fight to the ground, he becomes a nightmare.

Khera is a threat in all three aspects of grappling: control, damage, and submission offense. He’s constantly looking to improve position and hunt for the finish, though at times he’ll overcommit and lose position by chasing submissions too aggressively. At higher levels, that can be costly—but generally, he maintains dominant control. He’s a menace when taking the back, with a suffocating body triangle, strong wrist control, slick arm traps, ground-and-pound, and relentless attacks on the neck.

One of the most important things Khera has going for him is his gas tank, which holds up well with his grappling-heavy style. I’m high on Khera and think he’d make an excellent UFC addition—someone who can show that high-level grappling can be just as exciting as striking.

Aziz Khaydarov

Tajikistan-born Khaydarov has been making waves in the Chinese MMA scene for the past eight years. After starting off 2-5 with five straight losses, he’s turned things around, losing only once in the last eight years. Along the way, he’s picked up quality wins over Yawei Ren, who’s in this season’s Round to UFC 4 tournament, and Aili Mulatebieke, a highly regarded prospect out of China.

Khaydarov is a slick kickboxer with fast hands and a smooth striking rhythm. He’s especially fluid with his spinning attacks and carries himself with confidence on the feet. Lately, though, he’s been mixing in more wrestling. His wrestling and grappling are solid, particularly when working along the cage, and he’s shown some danger when hunting submissions.

That said, I do worry about his defensive liabilities, especially on the mat, which could be a problem against stronger, more well-rounded competition.

Prediction: I have serious concerns about Khaydarov’s takedown and grappling defense, especially against someone like Khera. The vulnerabilities he showed in past fights are hard to ignore. I keep going back to his bout with Balajin, where he was repeatedly taken down and controlled on the mat. If Balajin was able to have that much success, I’m confident Khera will be even more dominant. Every time Khaydarov ends up on his back, he looks flat and limited. I fully expect Khera to put him there and make his night miserable.