The UFC made its second trip of 2023 to Brazil this week, with UFC Sao Paulo set to be headlined by heavyweights Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis.
Nearly a decade ago now, Lewis burst onto the scene in the UFC, a scary, powerful finisher who quickly became a fan favorite. It wasn’t long before “The Black Beast” proved to be a contender, and he would eventually face Daniel Cormier in a failed title bid.
Time flies. Lewis is now a veteran of the heavyweight division, and the KO King of the weight class. Brazil’s Jailton Almeida is this generation’s up-and-coming force, a dangerous ground fighter who will pound you out if he can’t submit you. Undefeated through five fights in the promotion, Jailton has quickly stormed into the rankings.
Should he get past Lewis at UFC Sao Paulo on Saturday, Almeida will almost certainly enter the title conversation. While the division is held up by an injury to champ Jon Jones and the resulting interim title fight between Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295, whoever sees their hand raised on Saturday — especially if it’s new blood in Almeida — will have a case for being next.
Our picks are in for UFC Sao Paulo — here’s how we see the main card playing out, and if we’re being honest, the picks were nearly a consensus throughout.
| Writer / Fight | Vieira vs. Petrosyan | Borralho vs. Magomedov | Nascimento vs. Mayes | Bonfim vs. Dalby | Almeida vs. Lewis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Val Dewar (118-71) |  |  |  |  |  |
| Jamie Theodosi (116-70) |  | | | |  |
| Alex Behunin (119-73) | | | | | |
| Chris Prawdzik (111-71) | | | | | |
| Patrick McCorry (17-14) | | | | | |
| Jay Anderson (108-90) | | | | | |
| Cade Morehouse (56-48) | | | | | |
| Dylan Rush (94-88) | | | | | |
| Eddie Law (92-97) | | | | | |
It’s not uncommon for there to be a lock or two on a UFC Fight Night card, but three unanimous picks at a single event is almost unheard of among our staff. Yet that’s where we are with our UFC Sao Paulo staff picks. Caio Borralho, Rodrigo Nascimento, and Gabriel Bonfim were all consensus picks among our writers responding to this week’s staff picks pool. That might especially be surprising in the case of Bonfim, who while talented has a tough match-up in Nicolas Dalby, who is far from a pushover.
Even where we’re not in a consensus this week, the picks aren’t close. All but two writers see Jailton Almeida getting past Derrick Lewis in the UFC Sao Paulo main event. All but three see Armen Petrosyan fending off dangerous submission ace Rodolfo Vieira, which might be the closest thing we have to a controversial pick given Viera is highly decorated and fighting at home.
