UFC Vegas 62 will be headlined by two contenders in the women’s flyweight division, Alexa Grasso and Viviane Araujo. The matchup’s winner will probably position herself one fight away from the title shot, facing Lauren Murphy. But first, let’s look at the numbers, as this is a very close fight. I don’t see why not.
According to UFC Stats, Alexa lands 4.92 strikes per minute, while Vivi lands only 4.76 strikes. So neither fighter holds definitive edge standing. But defensively, Grasso only absorbs 3.79 strikes per minute to Araujo’s 5.13. So in combination with slightly better output, a striking defense warrants a better winning chance for Alexa. But there is a catch, and that is wrestling. Araujo lands 2.23 takedowns per fight, while Grasso manages 0.54. If Araujo chooses to take the fight to the ground, she may very well find herself winning the fight. Alexa shouldn’t attempt to fight off her back and instead try to scramble.
Alexa is currently as high as a -215 favorite to win the fight, which is a 68.25% implied probability. These odds are ridiculous, Grasso should win this fight, but in my opinion, Araujo will be landing harder shots, while Alexa will end up landing more strikes. Plus, if Vivi decides to wrestle proactively, she can earn a close decision win. Still, I like Grasso to win this fight as she makes significant striking and grappling improvements fight to fight.
Official Prediction: Alexa Grasso to win by Split Decision.
