Japan’s Nakamura had not lost a fight since his pro debut, while Szalay, an Australian, was on a similar run. His lone loss as a pro had come in his second professional fight.

Nakamura worked from the outside early in round one, flashing a front kick that fell short of Szalay. For his part, Szalay would crash forward, looking to close the distance more than once, and nearly trapped the Japanese fighter along the fence. Nakamura escaped, if just barely. He didn’t escape when Szalay fired a spinning back fist, though Nakamura was able to block the kick.

Still, Nakamura was taking damage. He absorbed a body shot, was clipped on his chin, and dropped to a knee, though that was more being off-balance, and not a knockdown. Still, Szalay seemed to have edge in power, and was landing the most effective strikes.

That continued early in round two. Nakamura appeared to be fighting a bit wild. He was often off-balance. He was moving, but not able to land much, and two minutes, in, was on the losing end of a nasty, accidental clash of heads. Luckily, he was able to continue, and close out the round. It was Szalay, however, connecting more than once with his left hand in round two, even landing something of a bodyslam-like takedown.

Round three saw Nakamura come out holding center, pressing forward, and keeping Szalay on the outside for a change. Szalay, however, was able to dig to the body. His movement was too good for Nakamura, who did try to turn up the heat in round three. He was looking for a home for his knee, perhaps knowing he needed a finish.

Moments later, he got one. Another knee, which might have started like as an attempted kick, connected flush on the chin of Szalay. He went down, Nakamura pounced on top with a few punches, and that was it! A massive come-from-behind victory for Keiichiro Nakamura, to claim the Road to UFC 4 tournament title!

Official Result: Keiichiro Nakamura def. Sebastian Szalay by TKO, Round 3, 3:48

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• I’m picking Bruna Brasil to beat Ming Shi. Brasil is mid, but Shi is arguably the worst fighter to win an RTU tournament. Brasil has fights where she doesn’t show up, but at worst, I still believe she’s better than Shi.
• I really like watching Nyamjargal Tumendemberel fight, and he’s going to be welcoming newcomer Terrance Saeteurn. I guess I’d pick Saeteurn because I believe he is durable enough to outlast Tumendemberel and win a close decision

Now on to the Road to UFC 4 fights!

Featherweight, Li Kaiwen (15-6) Vs. Nakamura Keiichiro (6-1)

Li Kaiwen

Keiichiro Nakamura

Prediction: Both fighters impressed in the opening round of the tournament, but to me, the biggest statement came from Nakamura. He completely shut down arguably the favorite to win the bracket and did so in highlight-reel fashion.

That said, there are still concerns with Nakamura, especially his striking defense. His chin tends to stay high, and his hand placement is sloppy. He often enters exchanges with his head upright and is too slow to bring his hands back to guard. Those habits could be dangerous against someone like Kaiwen.

Kaiwen is an aggressive, in-your-face action fighter. He brings pressure, throws volume, and tests chins, but his own defense is porous, and his fight IQ has raised questions. That reckless style could be exactly what’s needed to test Nakamura’s chin, but it also plays into Nakamura’s strengths.

If Nakamura stays disciplined, uses his footwork to circle out, and punishes Kaiwen for rushing in, he should be able to take over the fight. In the end, Kaiwen’s willingness to eat shots will likely be his downfall. If he had better defense, I’d give him a stronger chance—but this feels like a matchup tailored for Nakamura to shine again.

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As always, Road to UFC winners will win themselves a spot in the UFC. Hyun Sung Park, one of last season’s big winners, was in action this past weekend, and along with other RTU grads has been making a pretty big splash in the company.

Featherweight, Seb Szalay (8-1) Vs. Baergeng Jieleyisi (15-3)

Seb Szalay

Szalay is one of the top prospects to come out of Australia in recent years, and getting him on Road to UFC is a strong move by the matchmakers. He’s riding a seven-fight win streak and currently holds — and is defending — the Eternal MMA featherweight title.

Szalay fights out of an unorthodox karate stance, switching between stances fluidly and showcasing impressive lateral movement. While he’s been taken down at times, he generally does a solid job staying upright and getting back to his feet. On the feet, Szalay is a tough puzzle to solve. He’s constantly moving, mixing up his rhythm with a high volume of kicks and unpredictable striking patterns.

He excels at creating angles, slipping punches, and managing distance. Whether he’s moving forward or backward, his style remains effective. His hands often stay low, part of his approach to disguise his strikes and make them harder to read. That kind of movement-heavy, feint-heavy style demands strong cardio, and Szalay has proven he has it, going the distance in six of his wins, including two five-round fights. Szalay may need a better ground game in the UFC but with standup like his I firmly believe he can go a long way.

Baergeng Jieleyisi

This will be Jieleyisi’s third consecutive appearance on a Road to UFC season. He wasn’t originally slated to compete this time around but was brought in as an injury replacement. While Jieleyisi has shown he’s likely not UFC-caliber, he serves as a solid litmus test for prospects looking to prove they are.

He’s competent wherever the fight goes, but also shows vulnerabilities in all areas. On the feet, he has a good grasp of the fundamentals but tends to let his opponents dictate the pace. He often struggles to find his rhythm and ends up fighting from behind. His takedown defense has been a recurring issue, particularly in his two previous Road to UFC losses.

Though he does a respectable job defending off his back, Jieleyisi simply doesn’t win enough moments or rounds: he’s not a strong “minute-winner,” which is arguably his biggest flaw.

Prediction: The silver lining for Jieleyisi is that he’s not facing a wrestler, so he’ll have more opportunities to rely on his striking. The downside? Szalay is the best striker he’s faced in his career. Add in the fact that Jieleyisi is moving up a weight class and taking the fight on short notice, and the odds are stacked against him.

Stylistically, this might actually be a more favorable matchup for Szalay than his originally scheduled opponent, Ailinuer, who brought a lot of unknowns. Szalay is a much more polished striker. He’s technically sound, has a broader arsenal, and is defensively more responsible. I like Jieleyisi, but this is a brutal matchup for him.

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